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August
25, 2003
EXIT STRATEGY FOR IRAQ
by Srdja Trifkovic
"Let this be clear," declared a Norwegian international bureaucrat last
Thursday, "The UN is not pulling out of Iraq, but we are reorganizing
our operations and work with fewer staff." Fifty percent fewer, to be
precise. One important consequence of the bombing of the United Nations
headquarters in Baghdad that killed 23 and wounded a hundred is the
fact that from now on other countries will be reluctant to commit troops,
policemen, or administrators to Iraq. The signal from the bombers was
unambiguous: whoever comes to Baghdad now, under whatever auspices and
flag, will be treated as an American stooge, and targeted accordingly.
Those attackers are variously described as diehard Saddam loyalists,
Iranian agents, Al-Qaeda operators and Syrian infiltrators. While it
is possible that some or all of the above are involved in the daily
attacks that have claimed close to a thousand lives thus far-150 of
them American-it is unlikely that without their involvement all resistance
would cease. Violence against Americans, all olther foreigners and their
Iraqi helpers is fed by a restive population, especially in the Sunni
center, that resents foreign presence and wants it ended by whatever
means possible.
The sentiment is old-fashionedly nationalist. It will remain, and grow,
an as long as American troops remain. Bringing more US troops would
only make things worse, and in any event the option is unattractive
to the Administration only months before the election year. It would
prefer to have someone else's troops share the burden of occupation,
possibly under UN auspices.
In the immediate aftermath of the war an approach by the Bush Administration
to the UN with an offer of a Security Council-sanctioned mission in
Iraq would have been welcomed in "Old Europe" and elsewhere. In those
heady days, however, the notion of sharing the fruits of victory with
those who had opposed the war was regarded as unthinkable in Washington.
Four months later the roles are reversed: Secretary of State Colin
Powell is lobbying for a Security Council resolution that would bring
soldiers from various member-countries-under US command-to help maintain
a semblance of law and order in Iraq, but its approval is unlikely.
Iraq is "decomposing" and must recover its sovereignty, French Foreign
Minister Dominique de Villepin said, adding that a new U.N. resolution
that would bolster its occupying forces would simply "see the cycle
of violence worsen." Other Council members also say that the UN political
role must be expanded before any troops are approved. India will not
commit its long-promised 17,000 soldiers to the Iraqi multinational
force without a broader UN mandate.
If the Security Council refuses to adopt the kind of resolution that
Washington wants, it will be a blessing in disguise. It is in the interest
of the United States to hand over power in Iraq to a local government-or
perhaps several governments, running the Kurdish north, Sunni center,
and Shiite south respectively-and to withdraw all soldiers as soon as
possible. The democratic credentials and ideology of those authorities
taking over from the US are immaterial.
On the other hand, if Iraq were to become a UN-approved and managed
mission, the outcome would be disastrous for all concerned. The troops-including
many Americans-would stay until the job of "nation-building" is complete,
that is to say for ever. A self-perpetuating, self-serving and corrupt
bureaucracy would inevitably emerge, a la Sarajevo and Pristina. Even
if the blue helmets were placed under US command, the political decision-making
process would become de facto multinational and "multilateral." American
soldiers would continue to die, but their deaths would be even more
senseless than they are today.
Mr. Powell can help prevent all that, by remembering his own "doctrine"
from a decade ago, by applying its terms to what is becoming the Iraqi
quagmire, and by resigning if his colleagues from the Pentagon overrule
him yet again.
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