http://www.anderweltonline.com/fileadmin...-MH017.pdf
Ukraine Before the Storm: The Slow-Motion Collapse of the Ukrainian State and the Rada’s Capitulation
Acting Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk recently announced his resignation from the government amidst parliamentary infighting in the Rada, supposedly over none of the factions wanting to take the fall for the upcoming suicidal IMF stipulations. (His desire to leave off the hook ahead of the coming economic and social collapse of Ukraine has apparently come into collision with the interests of Western power groups seeking to establish control over the Ukrainian gas trasportation system first – OR).
The withdraw of the nationalist party Svoboda and Klitschko’s (German) project Udar continues the chain reaction of institutional collapse that began in late-November with the EuroMaidan Color Revolution. If a new Rada isn’t formed within 30 days, elections will have to take place. It has already been forecasted that this is nothing more than a ploy to solidify Poroshenko’s power base (Udar is a close ally) and expand the reach of the Svoboda nationalists. These risky and Machiavellian calculations will likely have far-reaching implications, continuing to push Ukraine ever further towards full-scale collapse and spreading the black hole of chaos that has begun to emerge in the country.
Nearing the Precipice
A routine fight in the Ukrainian parliament (photo taken on July 24, 2014)
A routine fight in the Ukrainian parliament (photo taken on July 24, 2014)
In the run-up to the most recent stage of institutional collapse, Kiev had found itself in a conundrum. After revving up the population for so-called Western integration and signing the EU Association Agreement and receiving IMF loans, the Rada realized that none of its members wanted to be responsible for implementing the brutal economic ‘tweaks’ that both of them necessitate. This is the immediate cause of the current Rada crisis – everyone wanted to ‘join the West’, but no one wanted to take electoral responsible for what that truly means.
Concurrent to this, Ukraine also banned one of its consistently largest political parties, the Communist Party, which polled 15% at the last legitimate election in 2012. For a country trying to ingratiate itself with ‘Western values’, it is contradictory that it would carry out such a policy, however, it cannot be said to be unexpected. After all, there had been loud calls for lustration ever since the February coup against legitimate president Yanukovich. This policy of political (and therefore, social) exclusion has been aided by the nationalist and fascist forces that have swept to power and influence in Ukraine in recent months.
All of this is to say nothing of the enormous humanitarian catastrophe ongoing in the Donbass region, where the UN officially estimates that at least 1,000 people have been killed and over 3,500 injured since the start of punitive operations against Federalist supporters in mid-April. 500,000 refugees have fled to Russia since then, with over 34,000 of them currently being housed by the state.
The Real Reason for the Void
The aforementioned explanations for the current governing void all owe their genesis to events that started earlier than the coup itself. First and foremost, Ukraine has been a geopolitical chess piece for the US since its independence in 1991. Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote about its role as a pivot of America’s Eurasian influence in his 1997 work “The Grand Chessboard”, quipping that “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire”. This strategic advice was certainly heeded at the State Department, since Victoria Nuland admitted that the US had spent $5 billion for “democracy promotion” in Ukraine since 1991. This investment wasn’t for “democracy” but rather for regime change by mobocracy, as can be seen by the Maidan mobs that ravaged Kiev before the coup. The drawn-out urban warfare of EuroMaidan, coupled with an intense Western propaganda campaign of state demonization, inevitably led to the shredding of the state’s structure right after the coup. This is something which did not even happen after the 2004 Orange Revolution, when the governing apparatus still relatively functioned in comparison to today.
Had it not been for the US’ geostrategic goals in enacting regime change in Ukraine and attacking Russia via proxy, there would be no crisis in the country. Refugees would not be streaming eastwards and Ukraine would not be split along civilizational fault lines. The growing black hole of chaos is completely attributable to the efforts of the US to follow through on its threats to disrupt Russia’s Eurasian Union integration goals, of which Ukraine was a possible candidate for membership prior to the destabilization’s commencement.
Ukraine Before the Storm
Events have been so dramatic and have moved so fast since November that it may be easy to forget what the country was like one year ago. In summer 2013, the government was corrupt but workable, with no large-scale violence and relative macro stability. All political parties were welcome in the inclusive government and the country had profitable dealings with the US, EU, and Russia. Importantly, energy supplies were secured and no downstream partners were in danger of a winter shortage.
Flash forward to the present day. The ‘government’ is dysfunctional and cripplingly corrupt, resembling Italy during the Cold War (one could even provocatively say today). Wide-scale violence has already claimed over 1,000 lives and destroyed the infrastructure in of one of Ukraine’s most formerly prosperous regions, destabilizing the entire Donbass. Lustration has made the Rada an exclusive club of those in alliance with the oligarchs, and extreme fringe movements hold disproportionate influence over the country. Although nominally moving towards Europe economically, Ukraine is now shackled in debt and is on the cusp of losing all bilateral trade with Russia, on which its economy is dependent. Failed political maneuvering by Kiev forced Russia to shut off the gas tap, raising fears of a cold winter and almost certainly guaranteeing another future crisis at the end of the year.
Over the Edge and Into the Unknown
In hindsight, the EuroMaidan coup may very well be seen as the fatal outside blow that wrecked Ukrainian statehood once and for all. The country is experiencing a painful and extended collapse before the eyes of the world, with the current political void being but the latest iteration of its downward spiral. Ukraine has gone over the edge and into unknown territory, with the only blueprint being the Yugoslavian scenario. The black hole of chaos inside of Ukraine is only growing, with the country now certainly exhibiting the symptoms of failed state status. There was an outside-engineered coup in a geopolitically convenient area, a proxy government, a merry-go-round parliament, a civil war that could possibly involve an intervention by its neighbor (Russia), and rabid nationalists scheming for power.
Being a country of 45 million and located smack dab in the middle of Eastern Europe, Ukraine may be ‘too big to fail’ for its foreign backers. In the past, it could never sustain itself on its own, being previously dependent on Russia since independence. Now that Russia has been violently pushed away, Ukraine is making itself a burden on the West and the EU, neither of which now wants to properly deal with it. The Western integration of Ukraine was a slogan used by both Ukrainian and Western politicians alike, none of whom wanted to take on the responsibilities associated with it, thereby putting the country in an untenable position and leading to the destitution of its masses.
Any entity demonstrating Ukraine’s failed-state characteristics should be something that other states’ militaries steer clear away from at all costs, but the US and NATO have unreasonably been moving even closer to this sick man since its symptoms began to show. The absorption of Ukraine into Shadow NATO under these circumstances is tantamount to directly involving the alliance in Ukraine’s hurricane-like spiral of chaos. Granting the country major non-NATO ally status is dangerous and irresponsible, especially when occurring during a government collapse and the increasingly dictatorial tendencies of its leader. The situation in Afghanistan, the most recent major non-NATO ally, has at least been semi-stable and predictable due to the forcible NATO occupation there (set to expire at the end of the year, however), but such a situation does not (yet) exist in Ukraine. It may be, however, that the West finds its Ukrainian operation ‘too big to fail’, and as the country experiences slow-motion economic, military, and political collapse, it may desperately think that NATO integration can plug these processes and reverse the inevitable.
Andrew Korybko is the American political correspondent of Voice of Russia who currently lives and studies in Moscow, exclusively for ORIENTAL REVIEW.
Kiev Government Forces and National Guard Losses in Donbass. Heavy Casualties
The following report based on Donbass governmental sources does not provide the most recent figures on casualties following the recent large scale attacks by the Kiev regime. This text first published by the Central News Agency Novorossia, Novorus.info was translated from Russian (See Russian original in Annex)
Total losses in Donbass inflicted to Kiev “punitive operatives” [in Russian каратели] 2 May – 11 July 2014
– 4994 soldiers (killed, wounded, prisoners)
[The figures pertain to killed, wounded or taken prisoner]
Within days punitive operative [Kiev forces] in Donbass suffered enormous losses (over 400 soldiers).
Defeated
24 Mechanized Brigade (g.Yavorov, Lviv region) and
79 airmobile brigade (Nikolaev).
72 Mechanized Brigade (White Church, Kyiv region) – surrounded.
In Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics Kiev Air force suffered significant losses.
July 11 shot down four Ukrainian Air Force Su.During the last days Kiev forces suffered enormous losses (over 300 soldiers) and the southern group of executioners appeared in the boiler. The greatest losses suffered
24 Mechanized Brigade (g.Yavorov, Lviv region) – more than 160 killed and wounded.
Large losses and 79 servicemen airmobile brigade (Nikolaev) – about 100 soldiers
Total losses in the Donbass punitive for May 2 – July 11, 2014South Kiev Forces groups in the DonbassServicemen 72 Mechanized Brigade (White Church, Kyiv region)
LC militias shot down another SU-25 aircraft
At the headquarters of the People’s Militia Donbass say that just today as a result of intense fighting in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics aviation Kiev junta suffered significant losses.
In particular, it is stated that on July 11 shot down shot down four Ukrainian Air Force Su.Total losses in the Donbass for May 2 – July 11, 2014
Thus, the total loss of punitive forces – 4994 soldiers (killed, wounded, prisoners) are
-1730 extremists “right sector,” mainly included in the National Guard, as well as losses among themselves soldiers of the National Guard of Ukraine.
May 29 was killed by Slavic Head of combat training of the National Guard Maj. Gen. Sergei Kulchitskii.
- 1400 Ukrainian mercenaries Kolomoyskogo (spetsbatalona Ukrainian mercenaries olomoyskogo “Dnepr”, “Donbass”, “Idar” and “Azov”, etc.). In Mariupol in May killed the leaders of mercenaries Kolomoyskogo Demidenko and Birch.
- 115 SBU Ukraine (Sumy “Alpha” completely destroyed, Kiev, Poltava, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Lutsk, Volyn, Vinnitsa, Zhitomir “Alpha” suffered heavy losses, etc.)
- 300 foreign mercenaries: Polish PMC «ASBS Othago» lost 109 people, the American PMCs “Greystone” – 40 people. American PMCs “Asademi” (until 2009 known as Blackwater) – 125 people. Baltic female snipers lost 26 people.
- 95 190 troops airmobile brigade Zhytomyr
- 25 150 troops airmobile brigade Dnepropetrovsk
- 79 180 troops airmobile brigade (Nikolaev)
- 230 troops 24 Mechanized Brigade (g.Yavorov, Lviv region)
- 80 130 troops airmobile regiment (Lviv)
- 40 special forces regiment of troops 3 (Kirovograd)
- 30 members of the Special Forces Regiment 8 (Khmelnitsky)
- 50 military 93 Mechanized Brigade (s.Cherkasskoe, Novomoskovskiy district Dnipropetrovsk region)
- 45 personnel 72 Mechanized Brigade (White Church, Kyiv region)
- 55 servicemen Lugansk border detachment
- 40 military frontier DonetskTotal losses in the Donbass punitive for May 2 – July 11, 2014
- 30 members of the 51th Brigade of the National Guard Army Aviation (Alexandria, Kirovograd region)
- 30 members of the 16th Army Aviation Brigade (Brody, Lviv region)
- 30 members of the 128 mining Infantry Brigade (Mukachevo, Transcarpathian region)
- 50 military battalions of territorial defense
- 25 831 soldiers Brigade Combat Aviation (g.Mirgorod, Poltava region)
- 5 114 soldiers Brigade Combat Aviation (Ivano-Frankivsk)
- 20 soldiers 299th Brigade Combat Aviation (Nikolaev)
- 9 out of the 25th Air Brigade transport (Melitopol) – Crew 1st IL-76
- 5 soldiers from reconnaissance aircraft AN-30 was shot down June 6 (approximately g.Chuguev Kharkiv region)
- 25 of the CIA and the FBI (13 killed, 12 wounded)
- 40 members of the MUP
Total losses in the Donbass punitive for May 2 – July 11, 2014
Destruction of equipment:
- 1 AN-26 aircraft
- 1 reconnaissance aircraft AN-30
- 2 aircraft – Ilyushin 76
- 7 Su-25 (Su-25, one captured in LC July 7)
- 5 Su-24
- 4 drone
- 18 combat helicopters (“Mi-24″, “E-17″ and “Mi-8″)
- 50 T-64 tanks
- 7 T-72 tanks
- 5 Hummers
- Jeep
- 10-66 Gas
- Staff car
- mobile crane
- 17 Uralov
- 14 Kamaz
- 2 UAZ 469
- 2 ACS Nona
- 1 Zu 23-2
- Position 4 GRAD MLRS
- 6 units MLRS Hurricane
- 12 D-30 howitzers
- 12 122 mm mortars
Total losses in the Donbass punitive for May 2 – July 11, 2014
- 36 BMP
- 35 BMD.
- 88 BTR.
Igor Panarin, Central News Agency Novorossia, Novorus.info
ANNEX
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года – 4994 человек.
В течении суток каратели в Донбассе понесли гигантские потери (более 400 человек). Разгромлены 24 механизированная бригада (г.Яворов, Львовская область) и 79 аэромобильная бригада (г.Николаев). 72 механизированная бригада (Белая Церковь, Киевская область) – окружена. На территории Донецкой и Луганской народных республик авиация карателей понесла значительные потери. 11 июля сбиты четыре штурмовика Су ВВС Украины.
В течении последних суток каратели понесли гигантские потери (более 300 человек), а южная группировка карателей оказалась в котле. Наибольшие потери понесла 24 механизированная бригада (г.Яворов, Львовская область) – более 160 убитых и раненых. Большие потери и у военнослужащих 79 аэромобильной бригады (г.Николаев) – около 100 человек.
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года
Окружение Южной группировки карателей в Донбассе
Военнослужащие 72 механизированной бригады (Белая Церковь, Киевская область) попали в котел в районе кургана Саур-могила
Ополченцы ЛНР сбили очередной СУ-25 и процент потерь авиации карателей достиг 50%. В штабе Народного ополчения Донбасса говорят, что только за сегодняшний день в результате интенсивных боев на территории Донецкой и Луганской народных республик авиация киевской хунты понесла значительные потери. В частности, утверждается, что 11 июля сбиты сбиты четыре штурмовика Су ВВС Украины.
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года
Итак, общие потери карателей – 4994 человек (убитых, раненых, пленных): из них
- 1730 экстремистов «Правого сектора», в основном вошедших в состав национальной гвардии, а также потери среди самих военнослужащих Национальной гвардии Украины. 29 мая был убит под Славянском начальник Управления боевой подготовки Национальной гвардии генерал-майор Сергей Кульчицкий.
- 1400 украинских наемников Коломойского (спецбатальоны украинских наемников оломойского «Днепр», «Донбасс», «Айдар» и «Азов» и т.д.). В Мариуполе в мае убиты руководители наемников Коломойского Демиденко и Береза.
- 115 сотрудников СБУ Украины (Сумская «Альфа» полностью уничтожена, Киевская, Полтавская, Тернопольская, Ивано-Франковская, Львовская, Ровенская, Луцкая, Волынская, Винницкая, Житомирская «Альфа» понесли большие потери и т.д.)
- 300 иностранных наемника: польская ЧВК «ASBS Othago» потеряла 109 человек, американская ЧВК «Грейстоун» – 40 чел., американская ЧВК «Асаdemi» (до 2009 года известна как Blackwater) – 125 чел. Прибалтийские женщины снайперы потеряли 26 человек.
- 190 военнослужащих 95 аэромобильной Житомирской бригады
- 150 военнослужащих 25 аэромобильной Днепропетровской бригады
- 180 военнослужащих 79 аэромобильной бригады (г.Николаев)
- 230 военнослужащих 24 механизированной бригады (г.Яворов, Львовская область)
- 130 военнослужащих 80 аэромобильного полка (г.Львов)
- 40 военнослужащих 3 полка спецназа (г.Кировоград)
- 30 военнослужащих 8 полка спецназа (г.Хмельницкий)
- 50 военнослужащих 93 механизированной бригады (с.Черкасское, Новомосковский район Днепропетровской области)
- 45 военнослужащих 72 механизированной бригады (Белая Церковь, Киевская область)
- 55 военнослужащих Луганского пограничного отряда
- 40 военнослужащих Донецкого погранотряда
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года
- 30 военнослужащих 51-й бригады армейской авиации национальной гвардии (Александрия, Кировоградской области)
- 30 военнослужащих 16 бригады армейской авиации (г.Броды, Львовская область)
- 30 военнослужащих 128 горно-пехотной бригады (г.Мукачево, Закарпатская область)
- 50 военнослужащих батальонов территориальной обороны
- 25 военнослужащих 831 бригады тактической авиации (г.Миргород, Полтавская область)
- 5 военнослужащих 114 бригады тактической авиации (г. Ивано-Франковск)
- 20 военнослужащих 299-й бригады тактической авиации (г.Николаев)
- 9 человек из 25-й транспортной авиабригады (Мелитополь) – экипаж 1-го Ил-76
- 5 военнослужащих из самолета-разведчика АН-30, сбитого 6 июня (ориентировочно г.Чугуев Харьковской области)
- 25 сотрудников ЦРУ и ФБР (13 убито, 12 ранено)
- 40 сотрудников МВД
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года
Уничтоженная техника:
- 1 самолет АН-26
- 1 самолет-разведчик АН-30
- 2 самолета – Ил 76
- 7 самолетов Су-25 (+1 СУ-25 захвачен в ЛНР 7 июля)
- 5 самолетов Су-24
- 4 беспилотника
- 18 боевых вертолетов («Ми-24», «Ми-17» и «Ми-8»)
- 50 танков Т-64
- 7 танков Т-72
- 5 Хаммеров
- Джип
- 10 Газ-66
- штабная машина
- автокран
- 17 Уралов
- 14 Камазов
- 2 УАЗ 469
- 2 САУ-Нона
- 1 зенитная установка ЗУ 23-2
- 4 установки РСЗО ГРАД
- 6 установок РСЗО Ураган
- 12 гаубиц Д-30
- 12 122 мм минометов
Общие потери карателей в Донбассе за 2 мая – 11 июля 2014 года
- 36 БМП
- 35 БМД.
- 88 БТР.
Игорь Панарин,
Центральное информационное агентство Новороссии
Novorus.info
The MH17 Crash: US Veteran Intelligence Officers Slam the Flimsy “Intelligence” Against Russia
Senior U.S. Intelligence Officers: Obama Should Release Ukraine Evidence
Preface: With the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine turning a local civil war into a U.S. confrontation with Russia, former high-level U.S. intelligence veterans released a statement today urging President Obama to release what evidence he has about the tragedy and silence the exaggeration and rush to judgment. (The whole post is a must-read; but we at Washington’s Blog have added bolding for emphasis.)
Signatory Bill Binney – the former senior technical director at the NSA, and a man who battled the Soviet Union for decades – tells Washington’s Blog:
In my analytic efforts to predict intentions and capabilities down through the years, I always made sure that I had multi-factors verifying what I was asserting. So far, I don’t see that discipline here in this administration or the IC [i.e. the United States intelligence community].
Posted with permission of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Intelligence on Shoot-Down of Malaysian Plane
Executive Summary
U.S.–Russian intensions are building in a precarious way over Ukraine, and we are far from certain that your advisers fully appreciate the danger of escalation. The New York Times and other media outlets are treating sensitive issues in dispute as flat-fact, taking their cue from U.S. government sources.
Twelve days after the shoot-down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, your administration still has issued no coordinated intelligence assessment summarizing what evidence exists to determine who was responsible – much less to convincingly support repeated claims that the plane was downed by a Russian-supplied missile in the hands of Ukrainian separatists.
Your administration has not provided any satellite imagery showing that the separatists had such weaponry, and there are several other “dogs that have not barked.” Washington’s credibility, and your own, will continue to erode, should you be unwilling – or unable – to present more tangible evidence behind administration claims. In what follows, we put this in the perspective of former intelligence professionals with a cumulative total of 260 years in various parts of U.S. intelligence:
We, the undersigned former intelligence officers want to share with you our concern about the evidence adduced so far to blame Russia for the July 17 downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. We are retired from government service and none of us is on the payroll of CNN, Fox News, or any other outlet. We intend this memorandum to provide a fresh, different perspective.
As veteran intelligence analysts accustomed to waiting, except in emergency circumstances, for conclusive information before rushing to judgment, we believe that the charges against Russia should be rooted in solid, far more convincing evidence. And that goes in spades with respect to inflammatory incidents like the shoot-down of an airliner. We are also troubled by the amateurish manner in which fuzzy and flimsy evidence has been served up – some it via “social media.”
As intelligence professionals we are embarrassed by the unprofessional use of partial intelligence information. As Americans, we find ourselves hoping that, if you indeed have more conclusive evidence, you will find a way to make it public without further delay. In charging Russia with being directly or indirectly responsible, Secretary of State John Kerry has been particularly definitive. Not so the evidence. His statements seem premature and bear earmarks of an attempt to “poison the jury pool.”
Painting Russia Black
We see an eerie resemblance to an earlier exercise in U.S. “public diplomacy” from which valuable lessons can be learned by those more interested in the truth than in exploiting tragic incidents for propaganda advantage. We refer to the behavior of the Reagan administration in the immediate aftermath of the shoot-down of Korean Airlines Flight 007 over Siberia on August 30, 1983. We sketch out below a short summary of that tragic affair, since we suspect you have not been adequately briefed on it. The parallels will be obvious to you.
An advantage of our long tenure as intelligence officers is that we remember what we have witnessed first hand; seldom do we forget key events in which we played an analyst or other role. To put it another way, most of us “know exactly where we were” when a Soviet fighter aircraft shot down Korean Airlines passenger flight 007 over Siberia on August 30, 1983, over 30 years ago. At the time, we were intelligence officers on “active duty.” You were 21; many of those around you today were still younger.
Thus, it seems possible that you may be learning how the KAL007 affair went down, so to speak, for the first time; that you may now become more aware of the serious implications for U.S.-Russian relations regarding how the downing of Flight 17 goes down; and that you will come to see merit in preventing ties with Moscow from falling into a state of complete disrepair. In our view, the strategic danger here dwarfs all other considerations.
Hours after the tragic shoot-down on Aug. 30, 1983, the Reagan administration used its very accomplished propaganda machine to twist the available intelligence on Soviet culpability for the killing of all 269 people aboard KAL007. The airliner was shot down after it strayed hundreds of miles off course and penetrated Russia’s airspace over sensitive military facilities in Kamchatka and Sakhalin Island. The Soviet pilot tried to signal the plane to land, but the KAL pilots did not respond to the repeated warnings. Amid confusion about the plane’s identity – a U.S. spy plane had been in the vicinity hours earlier – Soviet ground control ordered the pilot to fire.
The Soviets soon realized they had made a horrendous mistake. U.S. intelligence also knew from sensitive intercepts that the tragedy had resulted from a blunder, not from a willful act of murder (much as on July 3, 1988, the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner over the Persian Gulf, killing 290 people, an act which President Ronald Reagan dismissively explained as an “understandable accident”).
To make the very blackest case against Moscow for shooting down the KAL airliner, the Reagan administration suppressed exculpatory evidence from U.S. electronic intercepts. Washington’s mantra became “Moscow’s deliberate downing of a civilian passenger plane.” Newsweek ran a cover emblazoned with the headline “Murder in the Sky.” (Apparently, not much has changed; Time’s cover this week features “Cold War II” and “Putin’s dangerous game.” The cover story by Simon Shuster, “In Russia, Crime Without Punishment,” would merit an A-plus in William Randolph Hearst’s course “Yellow Journalism 101.”)
When KAL007 was shot down, Alvin A. Snyder, director of the U.S. Information Agency’s television and film division, was enlisted in a concerted effort to “heap as much abuse on the Soviet Union as possible,” as Snyder writes in his 1995 book, “Warriors of Disinformation.”
He and his colleagues also earned an A-plus for bringing the “mainstream media” along. For example, ABC’s Ted Koppel noted with patriotic pride, “This has been one of those occasions when there is very little difference between what is churned out by the U.S. government propaganda organs and by the commercial broadcasting networks.”
“Fixing” the Intelligence Around the Policy
“The perception we wanted to convey was that the Soviet Union had cold-bloodedly carried out a barbaric act,” wrote Snyder, adding that the Reagan administration went so far as to present a doctored transcript of the intercepts to the United Nations Security Council on September 6, 1983.
Only a decade later, when Snyder saw the complete transcripts — including the portions that the Reagan administration had hidden — would he fully realize how many of the central elements of the U.S. presentation were false.
The intercepts showed that the Soviet fighter pilot believed he was pursuing a U.S. spy aircraft and that he was having trouble in the dark identifying the plane. Per instructions from ground control, the pilot had circled the KAL airliner and tilted his wings to order the aircraft to land. The pilot said he fired warning shots, as well. This information “was not on the tape we were provided,” Snyder wrote.
It became abundantly clear to Snyder that, in smearing the Soviets, the Reagan administration had presented false accusations to the United Nations, as well as to the people of the United States and the world. In his book, Snyder acknowledged his own role in the deception, but drew a cynical conclusion. He wrote, “The moral of the story is that all governments, including our own, lie when it suits their purposes. The key is to lie first.”
The tortured attempts by your administration and stenographers in the media to blame Russia for the downing of Flight 17, together with John Kerry’s unenviable record for credibility, lead us to the reluctant conclusion that the syndrome Snyder describes may also be at work in your own administration; that is, that an ethos of “getting your own lie out first” has replaced “ye shall know the truth.” At a minimum, we believe Secretary Kerry displayed unseemly haste in his determination to be first out of the starting gate.
Both Sides Cannot Be Telling the Truth
We have always taken pride in not shooting from the hip, but rather in doing intelligence analysis that is evidence-based. The evidence released to date does not bear close scrutiny; it does not permit a judgment as to which side is lying about the shoot-down of Flight 17. Our entire professional experience would incline us to suspect the Russians – almost instinctively. Our more recent experience, particularly observing Secretary Kerry injudiciousness in latching onto one spurious report after another as “evidence,” has gone a long way toward balancing our earlier predispositions.
It seems that whenever Kerry does cite supposed “evidence” that can be checked – like the forged anti-Semitic fliers distributed in eastern Ukraine or the photos of alleged Russian special forces soldiers who allegedly slipped into Ukraine – the “proof” goes “poof” as Kerry once said in a different context. Still, these misrepresentations seem small peccadillos compared with bigger whoppers like the claim Kerry made on Aug. 30, 2013, no fewer than 35 times, that “we know” the government of Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical incidents near Damascus nine days before.
On September 3, 2013 – following your decision to call off the attack on Syria in order to await Congressional authorization – Kerry was still pushing for an attack in testimony before a thoroughly sympathetic Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. On the following day Kerry drew highly unusual personal criticism from President Putin, who said: “He is lying, and he knows he is lying. It is sad.”
Equally serious, during the first week of September 2013, as you and President Vladimir Putin were putting the final touches to the deal whereby Syrian chemical weapons would be given up for destruction, John Kerry said something that puzzles us to this day. On September 9, 2013, Kerry was in London, still promoting a U.S. attack on Syria for having crossed the “Red Line” you had set against Syria’s using chemical weapons.
At a formal press conference, Kerry abruptly dismissed the possibility that Bashar al-Assad would ever give up his chemical weapons, saying, “He isn’t about to do that; it can’t be done.” Just a few hours later, the Russians and Syrians announced Syria’s agreement to do precisely what Kerry had ruled out as impossible. You sent him back to Geneva to sign the agreement, and it was formally concluded on September 14.
Regarding the Malaysia Airlines shoot-down of July 17, we believe Kerry has typically rushed to judgment and that his incredible record for credibility poses a huge disadvantage in the diplomatic and propaganda maneuvering vis-a-vis Russia. We suggest you call a halt to this misbegotten “public diplomacy” offensive. If, however, you decide to press on anyway, we suggest you try to find a less tarnished statesman or woman.
A Choice Between Two
If the intelligence on the shoot-down is as weak as it appears judging from the fuzzy scraps that have been released, we strongly suggest you call off the propaganda war and await the findings of those charged with investigating the shoot-down. If, on the other hand, your administration has more concrete, probative intelligence, we strongly suggest that you consider approving it for release, even if there may be some risk of damage to “sources and methods.” Too often this consideration is used to prevent information from entering the public domain where, as in this case, it belongs.
There have been critical junctures in the past in which presidents have recognized the need to waive secrecy in order to show what one might call “a decent respect for the opinions of mankind” or even to justify military action.
As senior CIA veteran Milton Bearden has put it, there are occasions when more damage is done to U.S. national security by “protecting” sources and methods than by revealing them. For instance, Bearden noted that Ronald Reagan exposed a sensitive intelligence source in showing a skeptical world the reason for the U.S. attack on Libya in retaliation for the April 5, 1986 bombing at the La Belle Disco in West Berlin. That bombing killed two U.S. servicemen and a Turkish woman, and injured over 200 people, including 79 U.S. servicemen.
Intercepted messages between Tripoli and agents in Europe made it clear that Libya was behind the attack. Here’s an excerpt: “At 1:30 in the morning one of the acts was carried out with success, without leaving a trace behind.”
Ten days after the bombing the U.S. retaliated, sending over 60 Air Force fighters to strike the Libyan capital of Tripoli and the city of Benghazi. The operation was widely seen as an attempt to kill Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who survived, but his adopted 15-month-old daughter was killed in the bombing, along with at least 15 other civilians.
Three decades ago, there was more shame attached to the killing of children. As world abhorrence grew after the U.S. bombing strikes, the Reagan administration produced the intercepted, decoded message sent by the Libyan Peoples Bureau in East Berlin acknowledging the “success” of the attack on the disco, and adding the ironically inaccurate boast “without leaving a trace behind.”
The Reagan administration made the decision to give up a highly sensitive intelligence source, its ability to intercept and decipher Libyan communications. But once the rest of the world absorbed this evidence, international grumbling subsided and many considered the retaliation against Tripoli justified.
If You’ve Got the Goods…
If the U.S. has more convincing evidence than what has so far been adduced concerning responsibility for shooting down Flight 17, we believe it would be best to find a way to make that intelligence public – even at the risk of compromising “sources and methods.” Moreover, we suggest you instruct your subordinates not to cheapen U.S. credibility by releasing key information via social media like Twitter and Facebook.
The reputation of the messenger for credibility is also key in this area of “public diplomacy.” As is by now clear to you, in our view Secretary Kerry is more liability than asset in this regard. Similarly, with regard to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, his March 12, 2013 Congressional testimony under oath to what he later admitted were “clearly erroneous” things regarding NSA collection should disqualify him. Clapper should be kept at far remove from the Flight 17 affair.
What is needed, if you’ve got the goods, is an Interagency Intelligence Assessment – the genre used in the past to lay out the intelligence. We are hearing indirectly from some of our former colleagues that what Secretary Kerry is peddling does not square with the real intelligence. Such was the case late last August, when Kerry created a unique vehicle he called a “Government (not Intelligence) Assessment” blaming, with no verifiable evidence, Bashar al-Assad for the chemical attacks near Damascus, as honest intelligence analysts refused to go along and, instead, held their noses.
We believe you need to seek out honest intelligence analysts now and hear them out. Then, you may be persuaded to take steps to curb the risk that relations with Russia might escalate from “Cold War II” into an armed confrontation. In all candor, we see little reason to believe that Secretary Kerry and your other advisers appreciate the enormity of that danger.
In our most recent (May 4) memorandum to you, Mr. President, we cautioned that if the U.S. wished “to stop a bloody civil war between east and west Ukraine and avert Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine, you may be able to do so before the violence hurtles completely out of control.” On July 17, you joined the top leaders of Germany, France, and Russia in calling for a ceasefire. Most informed observers believe you have it in your power to get Ukrainian leaders to agree. The longer Kiev continues its offensive against separatists in eastern Ukraine, the more such U.S. statements appear hypocritical.
We reiterate our recommendations of May 4, that you remove the seeds of this confrontation by publicly disavowing any wish to incorporate Ukraine into NATO and that you make it clear that you are prepared to meet personally with Russian President Putin without delay to discuss ways to defuse the crisis and recognize the legitimate interests of the various parties. The suggestion of an early summit got extraordinary resonance in controlled and independent Russian media. Not so in “mainstream” media in the U.S. Nor did we hear back from you.
The courtesy of a reply is requested.
Prepared by VIPS Steering Group
William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
Larry Johnson, CIA & State Department (ret.)
Edward Loomis, NSA, Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East (ret.)
Coleen Rowley, Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.)
Peter Van Buren, U.S. Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret)
Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret); Foreign Service Officer (ret.)
H/t: Consortium News
US Senate Bill 2277: “Green Light” to Wage War on Russia? Isn’t Just about “Russian Aggression”. It’s Also about Oil, Gas and Propaganda
The full name of Senate Bill 2277, introduced on May 1st, 2014, is “To prevent further Russian aggression toward Ukraine and other sovereign states in Europe and Eurasia, and for other purposes.” It starts out claiming to be about the Department of Defense creating “a strategic framework for U.S. security assistance and cooperation in Europe and Eurasia”.
Currently, the bill is listed on Congress.gov as having been read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations. The bill’s full text can be found here.
As Paul Craig Roberts has pointed out, “Washington’s incessant lies alleging ‘Russian aggression’ have created Russian aggression out of thin air.”
So, for the purposes of this article, let’s go ahead and focus on the “for other purposes” part mentioned in the bill’s title.
This is the part that involves exploiting natural gas resources and inundating the former countries of the Soviet Union with American propaganda regarding the coming conflict on behalf of not just our government, but you, the American public.
It’s written right there in the bill.
Sections 305 and 306 — “Expediting natural gas exports” and “European and Eurasian energy independence” — discuss the exploitation and exploration of natural gas and oil resources by America’s private sector.
privatesectorukrainegas
So the U.S. government is going to “help” by allowing American corporations to exploit existing natural gas reserves and conduct additional exploration for oil and gas…you know, while we’re busy combating that pesky Russian aggression.
Well, it seems Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter made the right move at just the right time when he decided to join the board of Burisma Holdings, Ukraine’s largest private gas producer, not even two weeks after this bill was introduced.
The bill also involves lots of propaganda, and if you are American, the opinion expressed in that propaganda will be presented to these people as if you agree with it.
Section 309 “Expanded broadcasting in countries of the former Soviet Union” discusses how, while the United States government is doing all this, there will simultaneously be a propaganda campaign aimed at these countries to “convey” the American government and public’s “perspective”.
The section begins, “Not later than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Chairman of the Broadcasting Board of Governors and the Director of Voice of America shall provide Congress with a plan, including a cost estimate, for immediately and substantially increasing and maintaining through fiscal year 2017 the quantity of United States-funded Russian-language broadcasting into countries of the former Soviet Union.”
ukrainepropagandasb2277
The focus of the “programming” will be “conveying the perspective of the United States Government and public regarding ongoing events in those states to Russian language audiences.”
So not only will our government be “preventing further Russian aggression” by allowing our corporations to exploit natural gas reserves in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but they will launch a massive propaganda campaign at the same time in the name of the government and American citizens telling these people America is awesome for doing so.
I for one think this is little more than crony capitalism masquerading as war — war for empire without a single legitimate reason (unless exploiting natural gas is a good enough reason to potentially provoke World War III).
Well, I’m an American citizen, and that propaganda does not speak for me. No wonder so many people around the rest of the world think all Americans are a bunch of greedy warmongers.
In other news, at a recent Aspen Institute conference, US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey — who has been busy dusting off 20-plus-year-old war plans — actually found it within himself to utter, “You’ve got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives. It’s the first time since 1939 or so that that’s been the case.”
Melissa Melton is a writer, researcher, and analyst for The Daily Sheeple, where this first appeared, and a co-creator of Truthstream Media. Wake the flock up!
http://www.globalresearch.ca/senate-bill...da/5393875
![[Слика: xNWe4SfYHDvQ.jpg.pagespeed.ic.M1RWmKQFYs.webp]](http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/x/forum.krstarica.com/cs620220.vk.me/v620220042/ec56/xNWe4SfYHDvQ.jpg.pagespeed.ic.M1RWmKQFYs.webp)
![[Слика: jovan-sevic.jpg]](http://www.slobodanjovanovic.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/jovan-sevic.jpg)